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This will be the week of the turning point in interest rates. No, probably not here just yet, for while I would not completely rule it out, the balance of judgement remains that the Bank of England will wait until May before pushing up its base rate. But the European Central Bank has signalled strongly that it will increase rates tomorrow, and the mood seems to be shifting within the Federal Reserve towards higher rates too. Turning points are always hard to catch exactly, but this week feels as good as any to identify as the moment when the long climb back to normality begins.

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